Our AI writing assistant, WriteUp, can assist you in easily writing any text. Click here to experience its capabilities.

How to Prioritize the Next Generation of Critical Technologies

View Original View Raw

Summary

The U.S. government has identified and developed strategies around the most important technologies for national security and U.S.-China competition. Currently, determining the technologies and entities involved requires an enormous amount of manual, time-consuming work. To address this, the U.S. government should invest in the development of automated capabilities that leverage publicly available data for emerging technology detection and net assessment. This would enable them to more pre-emptively and organically prioritize the next generation of critical technologies and evaluate how the United States compares to China in these areas. It would also empower decision-makers to be less reactive in U.S.-China technology competition and avoid overlooking less-publicly known technologies that could become crucial to national security.

Q&As

What are the technologies the U.S. government has identified to be important to national security?
The U.S. government has identified fourteen critical technology areas and nineteen “critical and emerging technologies” that are important to national security, particularly relating to U.S.-China competition. These include supply chain challenges for semiconductors, the development of new biotechnologies (including vaccines), and the risks and opportunities presented by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.

How do experts currently prioritize critical technologies for national security and U.S.-China competition?
Currently, experts prioritize critical technologies for national security and U.S.-China competition through a top-down, manual, time-consuming process that involves collecting, reading, and categorizing academic publications. This process can also be reactive, with certain technologies only being prioritized after high-profile issues emerge.

What types of data can be used to detect emerging technologies and understand the U.S.'s relative standing in the field?
To detect emerging technologies and understand the U.S.'s relative standing in the field, publicly available data can be used, such as patent, business intelligence, supply chain, and other types of data.

What benefits would data-driven, automated emerging technology detection and net assessment bring to the U.S. government?
Data-driven, automated emerging technology detection and net assessment would enable the U.S. government to more pre-emptively and organically prioritize the next generation of critical technologies and evaluate how the United States compares to China in these areas. It would also enable policymakers, strategists, and funding agencies to identify American and allied innovators in emergent critical technology areas faster and earlier.

What type of funding model should be developed for the development of data-driven, automated capabilities for net assessment and emerging technology detection?
A funding model incorporating all government stakeholders should be developed so that costs are shared fairly. Data vendors, quantitative investment firms, and other private sector partners would supply data and influence technical approaches adopted to build the product.

AI Comments

👍 This article provides an excellent overview of the current approaches to detecting and assessing emerging technologies, as well as some of the challenges of manual and top-down approaches. It also provides helpful suggestions for leveraging technology and data to create a more proactive and organic approach to prioritizing next-generation critical technologies.

👎 This article fails to address how the U.S. government might be able to secure access to the data needed to enable automated capabilities for net assessment and emerging technology detection, which could be a major obstacle. Additionally, the article does not consider how the development of these capabilities might be hindered by privacy and security concerns.

AI Discussion

Me: It talks about how the U.S. government has identified and developed strategies around what it has determined to be the most important technologies for national security, particularly relating to U.S.-China competition. It also discusses the need to develop automated capabilities that leverage publicly available data to detect emerging technologies and conduct net assessments to understand how the U.S. compares to its adversaries in technological readiness.

Friend: Interesting. It sounds like this article is suggesting that the U.S. government should be more proactive in developing and prioritizing emerging technologies and ensuring that the U.S. is ahead of its adversaries in terms of technological readiness.

Me: Exactly. It also suggests that automated capabilities will help ensure that the U.S. is not missing out on less publicly known technologies that could become important for national security. The implications of this article could be far-reaching. It could mean that the U.S. is able to identify potential threats and opportunities before its adversaries, giving it a strategic advantage. It could also enable the U.S. to make more informed decisions about what technologies to prioritize and invest in.

Action items

Research and review the list of critical technologies identified by the U.S. government and the National Science and Technology Council.
Investigate the potential of leveraging publicly available data to detect emerging technologies and conduct net assessments.
Explore the development of automated capabilities for net assessment and emerging technology detection.

Technical terms

USD(R&E): Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering.
Net Assessment: A process of determining the entities involved and the United States’ relative standing in certain technologies.
Reactive: Acting in response to a situation rather than creating or controlling it.
Biotechnologies: Technologies related to the use of living organisms or their components to create or modify products or processes for specific use.
Artificial Intelligence: The ability of a computer or machine to learn from its environment and make decisions based on its experiences.
Advanced Manufacturing: The use of technology to improve the efficiency, quality, and cost of manufacturing processes.
Advanced Gas Turbine Engine Technologies: Technologies that improve the efficiency and performance of gas turbine engines.
Human-Machine Interfaces: The connection between a human and a machine, such as a computer, that allows the two to interact.
Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs): Organizations that are funded by the U.S. government to conduct research and development in specific areas.
Data Vendors: Companies that provide data to customers for a fee.