Bayes' rule: A powerful thinking paradigm

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Mature your mind with “Bayesian thinking”

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with Jonny Thomson  ● December 13, 2022

Welcome to The Well, ideas that inspire a life well-lived. Every Tuesday, Jonny Thomson , philosopher and editor for The Well, guides you through life’s biggest questions with the world's brightest minds.

Hello everyone,

This week is all about bricks in the wall.

In our Interview of the week , we look at how “Bayes’ Rule” can be applied to our beliefs. Julia Galef, the co-host of the podcast Rationally Speaking , teaches us that nothing is 100% anything. We can have more or less confidence in certain things — that is, more or less evidence or justification — but we can never be entirely sure of what we believe. We should see our belief structure (or noetic structure, as philosophers call it) more like a building under construction. It’s a building where the bricks come and go, and where the overall architecture is in a state of near-constant flux.

As our Quote of the week hints at, one of the best ways to build (or tear down) this structure is to travel. For anyone who thinks that life is black-and-white and truths are obvious — that life itself is a question with only one answer — then take a trip to a foreign land. Travel far and long. You’ll find out surely enough that almost anything can be seen differently. The bricks with which you’ve built your ideas and beliefs come from only one tradition, at one point in time. Meet other people, and you’ll see the cracks start to appear.

So, with trowels at the ready, let’s get building,

Jonny

Interview of the week

with Julia Galef

When you are young, the world is painted in black and white. There are bad guys and heroes; everything is either absolutely wrong or right. A child thinks things like, “Dad was completely to blame for the divorce,” “Americans are always the good guys,” or, “Stealing is always, and everywhere, wrong.” A child lives with the deontological swagger of a Captain America who has read too much Immanuel Kant.

But then, the child grows up. The world starts to creep in. Nuance and complications ooze through the cracks of this black and white edifice. A rule finds its exception and a principle falls short. As Julia Galef, of the Think Rationally podcast, tells us in our Interview of the week , “You become much more aware that your beliefs are grayscale.”

As we get older, we learn that our beliefs are not absolute certainties. Instead, we accept that “most likely” is as good as it gets — even though, much of the time, it won’t even make it to that. Maturing means that we become more comfortable with uncertainty, and we give ourselves (and others) more wiggle room. We stop saying words like “always” and replace them with words like “probably” and “maybe.” We stop demanding that everyone behave a certain way, and simply hope that people behave better. If they can.

In short, maturing means learning that the world is made up almost entirely of best efforts and compromises. It’s about muddling through muddy waters.

WATCH VIDEO

Quote of the week

A child’s brain is one of the most remarkable things in the universe. It’s remarkable not so much for how useful it is (anyone who has spent any time around a young child will see how unfit for life they are) but in how adaptable it is. A child’s mind is plastic. It’s designed to fit a world as it comes — not as we expect it to be. A child can learn Chinese or Russian; horsemanship or coding; kindness or hatred. From a common African ancestor, Homo sapiens migrated all over the planet, to live in frosty tundras and waterless deserts. We learned to adapt and thrive.

As our Quote of the week reveals, when we travel, we get to witness just how incredible the human capacity is to adapt. We learn about different ways of seeing the world and different ways of being. We learn that what we’ve always called the way of doing things is in fact only one way. When you travel or get lost in the ocean of possible human paths, you see, anew, your own.

It might just be that when you travel and see the wild variety of life to be lived, you find a way of being that suits you better than the one you thought was yours.

JOIN US ON INSTAGRAM

Question of the week

What's one thing from the past that's worth preserving?

Spirituality✨ Have been part of our past and contributing to mental wellness all this while – Surabhi C., Instagram Community Member

Have a different view? Read more responses & join the conversation on Instagram or  Facebook .

Next week's question

What does the world need more of?

Every week, we will choose an answer from our community to feature in next week's issue of The Well! Reply directly to me by email or follow us and comment on Facebook to join the conversation.

JOIN US ON FACEBOOK

Beyond The Well

A life-saving intervention for military veterans

Just 5 senses? Architects manipulate 7 of your senses

Gratitude through the lens of Islam: From everyday praise to the greatness of Muhammad Ali

5 Zen masters and what they taught

Jonny Thomson is a philosophy teacher and Big Think contributor. He runs a popular Instagram account called Mini Philosophy ( @philosophyminis ). His first book is called "Mini Philosophy: A Small Book of Big Ideas."

Follow The Well on your favorite platform.

Ideas that inspire a life well-lived. Welcome to The Well, a publication by the John Templeton Foundation and Big Think .

Want to change which emails you receive from us? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from The Well . Copyright © 2022 Freethink, All rights reserved.

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Copy. Twitter 0 tweets. Subscribe. Share. Past Issues. RSS. Translate English العربية Afrikaans беларуская мова български catala 中文（简体） 中文（繁體） Hrvatski Cesky Dansk eesti keel Nederlands Suomi Francais Deutsch Ελληνικη हिनदी Magyar Gaeilge Indonesia islenska Italiano 日本語 ភាសាខមែរ 한국어 македонски јазик بهاس ملايو Malti Norsk Polski Portugues Portugues - Portugal Romana Русскии Espanol Kiswahili Svenska עברית Lietuviu latviesu slovencina slovenscina српски தமிழ ภาษาไทย Turkce Filipino украінська Tieng Viet. Mature your mind with “Bayesian thinking” View in Browser. with Jonny Thomson  ● December 13, 2022. Welcome to The Well, ideas that inspire a life well-lived. Every Tuesday, Jonny Thomson , philosopher and editor for The Well, guides you through life’s biggest questions with the world's brightest minds. Hello everyone, This week is all about bricks in the wall. In our Interview of the week , we look at how “Bayes’ Rule” can be applied to our beliefs. Julia Galef, the co-host of the podcast Rationally Speaking , teaches us that nothing is 100% anything. We can have more or less confidence in certain things — that is, more or less evidence or justification — but we can never be entirely sure of what we believe. We should see our belief structure (or noetic structure, as philosophers call it) more like a building under construction. It’s a building where the bricks come and go, and where the overall architecture is in a state of near-constant flux. As our Quote of the week hints at, one of the best ways to build (or tear down) this structure is to travel. For anyone who thinks that life is black-and-white and truths are obvious — that life itself is a question with only one answer — then take a trip to a foreign land. Travel far and long. You’ll find out surely enough that almost anything can be seen differently. The bricks with which you’ve built your ideas and beliefs come from only one tradition, at one point in time. Meet other people, and you’ll see the cracks start to appear. So, with trowels at the ready, let’s get building, Jonny. Interview of the week. with Julia Galef. When you are young, the world is painted in black and white. There are bad guys and heroes; everything is either absolutely wrong or right. A child thinks things like, “Dad was completely to blame for the divorce,” “Americans are always the good guys,” or, “Stealing is always, and everywhere, wrong.” A child lives with the deontological swagger of a Captain America who has read too much Immanuel Kant. But then, the child grows up. The world starts to creep in. Nuance and complications ooze through the cracks of this black and white edifice. A rule finds its exception and a principle falls short. As Julia Galef, of the Think Rationally podcast, tells us in our Interview of the week , “You become much more aware that your beliefs are grayscale.” As we get older, we learn that our beliefs are not absolute certainties. Instead, we accept that “most likely” is as good as it gets — even though, much of the time, it won’t even make it to that. Maturing means that we become more comfortable with uncertainty, and we give ourselves (and others) more wiggle room. We stop saying words like “always” and replace them with words like “probably” and “maybe.” We stop demanding that everyone behave a certain way, and simply hope that people behave better. If they can. In short, maturing means learning that the world is made up almost entirely of best efforts and compromises. It’s about muddling through muddy waters. WATCH VIDEO. Quote of the week. A child’s brain is one of the most remarkable things in the universe. It’s remarkable not so much for how useful it is (anyone who has spent any time around a young child will see how unfit for life they are) but in how adaptable it is. A child’s mind is plastic. It’s designed to fit a world as it comes — not as we expect it to be. A child can learn Chinese or Russian; horsemanship or coding; kindness or hatred. From a common African ancestor, Homo sapiens migrated all over the planet, to live in frosty tundras and waterless deserts. We learned to adapt and thrive. As our Quote of the week reveals, when we travel, we get to witness just how incredible the human capacity is to adapt. We learn about different ways of seeing the world and different ways of being. We learn that what we’ve always called the way of doing things is in fact only one way. When you travel or get lost in the ocean of possible human paths, you see, anew, your own. It might just be that when you travel and see the wild variety of life to be lived, you find a way of being that suits you better than the one you thought was yours. JOIN US ON INSTAGRAM. Question of the week. What's one thing from the past that's worth preserving? Spirituality✨ Have been part of our past and contributing to mental wellness all this while – Surabhi C., Instagram Community Member. Have a different view? Read more responses & join the conversation on Instagram or  Facebook . Next week's question. What does the world need more of? Every week, we will choose an answer from our community to feature in next week's issue of The Well! Reply directly to me by email or follow us and comment on Facebook to join the conversation. JOIN US ON FACEBOOK. Beyond The Well. A life-saving intervention for military veterans. Just 5 senses? Architects manipulate 7 of your senses. Gratitude through the lens of Islam: From everyday praise to the greatness of Muhammad Ali. 5 Zen masters and what they taught. Jonny Thomson is a philosophy teacher and Big Think contributor. He runs a popular Instagram account called Mini Philosophy ( @philosophyminis ). His first book is called "Mini Philosophy: A Small Book of Big Ideas." Follow The Well on your favorite platform. Ideas that inspire a life well-lived. Welcome to The Well, a publication by the John Templeton Foundation and Big Think . Want to change which emails you receive from us? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from The Well . Copyright © 2022 Freethink, All rights reserved.