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Second Order Thinking

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Summary

This article discusses the concept of second order thinking, which is a way of considering the unintended consequences of a given decision before making it. It looks at examples of when second order thinking has been applied, such as the San Diego real estate market, the late fee imposed by day care providers in Israel, and Robert Frost's poem "The Second Coming". It also mentions the Yeats Test, which looks at how often William Butler Yeats's poem is quoted in comparison to Seamus Heaney's, in order to determine the current stability of the world.

Q&As

What is second order thinking?
Second order thinking is the consideration of how a given decision will influence individuals’ behavior when modeling the effects of that decision.

How can second order thinking be applied to complex systems?
Second order thinking can be applied to complex systems by considering what unintended consequences may arise from a given decision and protecting against them to the extent possible.

What is the Yeats Test?
The Yeats Test is a proposition that the more quotable William Butler Yeats seems to commentators and politicians, the worse things are.

How did Robert Frost use second order thinking?
Robert Frost used second order thinking to question if and when good fences make good neighbors.

What is Braess's Paradox and how does it relate to second order thinking?
Braess's Paradox is the observation that adding roads to a transportation network often slows down overall traffic flow through it. It is an example of how second order thinking can be applied to complex systems to consider unintended consequences.

AI Comments

👍 This article provides great insight into the concept of second order thinking and how it plays out in both popular culture and real life situations. It also includes a fun game to help readers understand the concept better.

👎 This article is overly long and uses too many examples to explain the concept of second order thinking, making it difficult to follow and understand.

AI Discussion

Me: It's about second order thinking and how it can help us to anticipate the consequences of our decisions. The article gives some examples of how second order thinking has been applied in different contexts, like the San Diego real estate market, the Israeli day care centers, and the U.S. arming the Mujahadeen during the Cold War.

Friend: That's interesting! It seems like second order thinking is important for making sound decisions.

Me: Definitely. The article points out that our thoughts are powerful, and we should always consider what could go wrong when making decisions. It also mentions the importance of understanding the history behind the decisions we make, so that we can better anticipate the consequences.

Action items

Research the concept of "second order thinking" and its implications for decision-making.
Practice the "second order thinking game" to become more familiar with the concept.
Read more about the "Yeats Test" and how it can be used to gauge the stability of a situation.

Technical terms

Rational Expectations: A theory in economics which states that individuals make decisions based on their rational assessment of available information.
Lucas Critique: A concept in economics which states that the effects of a policy should be considered in terms of how it influences individuals’ behavior when modeling the effects of that decision.
K-Level Thinking: A concept which states that there can be any number of levels of thinking, not just two.
Chesterton’s Fence: A concept which states that one should not remove a fence until they know why it was put up in the first place.
Braess’s Paradox: A concept which states that adding roads to a transportation network often slows down overall traffic flow through it.
Streisand Effect: A concept which states that attempts to suppress information draw attention to it, increasing knowledge of it.
Keynesian Beauty Contest: A concept which states that markets are an excellent example of how higher-level thinking plays out.
Observer Effect: A concept in quantum mechanics which states that one’s thoughts are powerful and can alter whatever they meet.
Yeats Test: A concept which states that the more quotable William Butler Yeats seems to commentators and politicians, the worse things are.