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Scientists Warn 1 Billion People on Track to Die From Climate Change

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Summary

Scientists have conducted a review of 180 articles on the human death rate of climate change, and have concluded that at least one billion people could die as a result of climate catastrophes in the next century. This prediction is based on the '1000-ton rule', which states that every thousand tons of carbon that is burned is indirectly responsible for condemning a future person to death. Climate change can have a variety of impacts, including crop failures, droughts, flooding, extreme weather, wildfires, and rising seas, making it difficult to predict the exact number of deaths that it will cause. Burning all the reserves of the Adani Carmichael coalmine in Australia, for example, could lead to the premature deaths of 3 million people. The authors of the review argue that measuring emissions in terms of human lives makes the numbers easier for the public to digest, while also underlining the urgency of taking action in order to prevent these deaths.

Q&As

How many people are estimated to die from climate change over the next century?
Over the next century, conservative estimates suggest a billion people could die from climate catastrophes, possibly more.

What rule of thumb is used to determine the human death rate of climate change?
The '1000-ton rule' is used to determine the human death rate of climate change.

How much does the global temperature need to increase for a large number of deaths to occur?
The world needs to reach temperatures 2°C above the average global preindustrial temperature for a large number of deaths to occur.

How many people are projected to die from the Adani Carmichael coalmine in Australia?
About 3 million people are projected to die from the Adani Carmichael coalmine in Australia.

What is the 1000-ton rule and what does it estimate?
The 1000-ton rule estimates that for every thousand tons of carbon that humanity burns, one future person will die. It is an order of magnitude best estimate, meaning it is more of a range, somewhere between 0.1 to 10 deaths per 1000 tons of carbon burned.

AI Comments

👍 This comprehensive article provides an important warning on the effects of climate change and the devastating consequences it could have on the lives of many people.

👎 This article fails to consider other factors which could influence the death rate from climate change, making its predictions unreliable.

AI Discussion

Me: It's about how climate change could lead to the death of a billion people over the next century. Scientists have used a framework called the '1000-ton rule' to estimate that every 1000 tons of carbon humanity burns will indirectly cause a person to die from climate catastrophes. They also point out that if the world reaches temperatures 2°C above the average global preindustrial temperature, then that will lead to 100 million deaths for every 0.1 °C degree of warming from now on.

Friend: Wow, that's a really scary number. What are the implications of this?

Me: Well, it's a stark reminder of how urgent it is to act on climate change. The authors of the article are calling for action now, to prevent these deaths from happening. They point out that burning coal, for example, could lead to the premature deaths of 3 million people in the future. So, it's important to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and switch to renewable energy sources if we want to prevent this from happening.

Action items

Educate yourself and others on the effects of climate change and the importance of reducing carbon emissions.
Advocate for policy changes that reduce carbon emissions and promote renewable energy sources.
Support organizations and initiatives that are working to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Technical terms

Fossil fuels: Fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas that are formed from the remains of plants and animals that lived millions of years ago.
1000-ton rule: A rough rule of thumb that states that every thousand tons of carbon that humanity burns is said to indirectly condemn a future person to death.
Preindustrial temperature: The average global temperature before the industrial revolution.
Anthropogenic global warming: Global warming caused by human activities.
United Nations: An international organization that works to promote peace and security, economic development, and human rights.
Adani Carmichael coalmine: A proposed coalmine in Australia that is set to become the largest coalmine ever.
Climate feedback loops: Processes in which changes in one part of the climate system cause changes in another part of the system, which in turn cause further changes.
Order of magnitude best estimate: A range of estimates that is used to provide an approximate value for a given quantity.
Doctor Doom: A nickname for a person who is seen as overly pessimistic or negative.