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S&P 500: Prepping For A Pullback - Week Starting 24th July (Technical Analysis)

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Summary

The S&P 500 is likely to continue its bullish trend later in August, but a pullback is due first. This could be the largest dip since early May and 4448-4458 could be a good buying opportunity. The July bar looks unlikely to reverse and form anything too bearish in the six sessions left this month. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the main event, but with the odds of a hike at 99.8%, the focus will be on any signals for September. A deeper pullback to 4375-85 is possible and another opportunity to try longs. As long as price stays above 4325-28, the S&P 500 should continue its bullish trend.

Q&As

What is the S&P 500's current bullish trend?
The S&P 500's current bullish trend is likely to continue its bullish trend later in August.

What are some potential support and resistance levels?
Potential support levels include 4385, 4325, 4195-200, and 4504. Potential resistance levels include 4593-4595, 4637-62, and 4578.

What are the key indicators to watch for a pullback?
Key indicators to watch for a pullback include a break of 4504, a break of the 20-day moving average, and a break of the trend channel.

What is the likelihood of an FOMC rate hike on Wednesday?
The likelihood of an FOMC rate hike on Wednesday is 99.8%.

What is the expected outcome of the S&P 500 over the next few weeks?
The expected outcome of the S&P 500 over the next few weeks is a pullback due to weekly exhaustion and a reversal at channel resistance, followed by a rally to the 4600s later in August.

AI Comments

👍 This is a great article with an actionable guide and directional bias to help prepare investors for the coming sessions.

👎 This article lacks sufficient detail on the potential risks of investing in the S&P 500.

AI Discussion

Me: It's about the S&P 500 index and how there is likely to be a pullback in the near future. The article breaks down the implications of this pullback and provides some technical analysis to explain why it could happen.

Friend: Interesting. What are the implications of this pullback?

Me: Well, it could mean that the bullish trend in the S&P 500 could be paused or reversed which could have an effect on the stock market as a whole. It could also mean that the current rally could take a pause and set up the next rally. Additionally, it could be a good buying opportunity as the pullback should create a good price point to buy stocks.

Action items

Monitor the monthly chart for signs of reversal.
Monitor the 20-day moving average for potential support and resistance levels.
Monitor the FOMC meeting on Wednesday for any signals for September and beyond.

Technical terms

S&P 500 Index (SP500): A stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.
Demark Count: A technical analysis tool used to identify potential trend reversals. It is based on the number of bars in a trend and the number of bars that have already occurred.
FOMC Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Federal Reserve System that is responsible for setting the direction of monetary policy.
PMIs: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator used to measure the health of the manufacturing sector.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a given period of time.
Core PCE Price Index: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is used by the Federal Reserve to measure inflation.