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Schrodinger’s Military? Challenges for China’s Military Modernization Ambitions

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Summary

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone a historic military modernization effort in the last two decades and is rapidly growing in size. However, the PLA still faces some significant challenges, such as organization, training, education, and doctrinal concepts, in order to become a world-class military. The PLA is attempting to increase jointness and achieve intelligentization, which is the integration of AI to give superior decision-making capabilities to the operational commander. However, AI and autonomous systems can still be fragile and may not deliver all the advantages the PLA hopes for. Ultimately, the PLA's progress in achieving its modernization goals remains uncertain and will likely only be revealed by real combat experience.

Q&As

What are China's ambitions for its military modernization?
China's ambitions for its military modernization are to have a "world-class military" by the middle of the century.

What challenges does the PLA still face in achieving its ambitions?
The PLA still faces challenges in embracing jointness among the service branches, updating doctrine to reflect the implications of their belief in a military revolution through artificial intelligence, cultivating a joint culture, breaking through parochial service interests, and coordinating disparate operational efforts.

What effects does the PLA's emphasis on jointness have on its warfighting capabilities?
Promoting jointness allows the service branches to emphasize their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses, but it also requires officers and enlisted corps to be intimately familiar with the other service branches and able to determine how to work well together.

What risks are associated with the PLA's attempts to use AI for military modernization?
The risks associated with the PLA's attempts to use AI for military modernization include highly centralized decision-making structures, fragility in AI and autonomous systems, and overconfidence in the capabilities of AI and advanced technologies.

How can outside observers best understand the progress of the PLA's modernization?
Outside observers can best understand the progress of the PLA's modernization by carefully watching for any signs of progress in the Chinese military’s continued development, beginning with the PLA’s commentary about itself, and by parsing the often inconsistent, contradictory, and confusing environment that China offers to outside observers.

AI Comments

👍 This article provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the various aspects of China's military modernization ambitions and the challenges they face in meeting those ambitions.

👎 This article lacks analysis of how China's military modernization efforts could have negative implications for other states in the region.

AI Discussion

Me: It's about the challenges the People's Liberation Army (PLA) faces in achieving Xi Jinping's goal of becoming a world-class military by the middle of the century. It discusses the PLA's struggles to embrace jointness among its service branches and the challenge of updating doctrine to reflect the implications of their belief in a military revolution through artificial intelligence.

Friend: Interesting. What are the implications of the article?

Me: The article points out that there are a few key metrics of warfighting capabilities that the PLA still lags in. For example, the PLA faces difficulty in developing a joint culture, breaking through parochial service interests, and coordinating disparate operational efforts. Additionally, the PLA is overconfident in the potential of futuristic technology, and the article argues that this could lead to potential risks that could weigh on the PLA's warfighting capabilities. Finally, the article emphasizes the importance of understanding the oftentimes underrated and more difficult to measure aspects of military power in order to get a better understanding of the PLA's true warfighting capabilities.

Action items

Research the PLA's efforts to embrace jointness and achieve intelligentization.
Analyze the potential risks and mitigation approaches associated with intelligentization.
Examine the implications of mission command for the PLA's centralized decision-making structures.

Technical terms

World-class military: A military force that is considered to be among the best in the world in terms of its size, capabilities, and training.
Jointness: The process of integrating each of the military services together into a cohesive whole with the sum greater than its parts.
Intelligentization: A concept that refers to the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the military to give superior decision-making capabilities to the operational commander.
Mission command: A modern concept of warfare that emphasizes decentralized decision-making and initiative.
Artificial Intelligence (AI): A branch of computer science that deals with the development of computer systems that can think and act like humans.
Autonomous systems: Computer systems that are capable of making decisions without human input.
Star Wars: A popular science fiction franchise created by George Lucas.