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The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity

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Summary

This article examines the geopolitical landscape of 2024 and the dangers it faces. It looks at the decline of the West's share of world GDP, the rise of autocratic competitors, and the fragility of the Western coalition. It argues that if America elects an internationalist president at the end of 2024, the world will breathe a sigh of relief, but America still faces a long slog to stabilize and renew the international system. It concludes that if these threats are not addressed, a zone of impunity will expand further and a trio of trouble could emerge featuring China, Iran and Russia.

Q&As

What are the three main threats to the post-1945 world order in 2024?
The three main threats to the post-1945 world order in 2024 are a growing zone of impunity, a trio of trouble featuring China, Iran and Russia, and the fragility of the Western coalition.

How has the West's share of world GDP changed since the 19th century?
The West's share of world GDP has fallen towards 50% for the first time since the 19th century.

What is the Biden administration's foreign policy approach?
The Biden administration's foreign policy approach is to be a more selective, even selfish, superpower, prioritising certain areas and shifting resources to counter China.

What are the implications of an isolationist president in America?
The implications of an isolationist president in America would be that America's commitment to the international system would falter, Europe would struggle to provide funding or military muscle, Asian allies would placate China and bolster their defences, and middle powers such as South Korea and Saudi Arabia may seek nuclear weapons.

What steps must be taken to stabilise and renew the international system?
To stabilise and renew the international system, steps must be taken such as European enlargement, deepening co-operation with India, and a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

AI Comments

👍 This article provides an insightful analysis of the current geopolitical state of the world and provides a great summary of the potential challenges that the global order may face in 2024.

👎 The article does not provide any concrete solutions to the challenges it outlines, leaving readers feeling uncertain about the future of the global order.

AI Discussion

Me: It talks about the fragility of the Western coalition and the implications of that for the world order in 2024. It also talks about the three threats to the world order in 2024, which include a growing zone of impunity, a trio of trouble consisting of China, Iran, and Russia, and the fragility of the Western coalition.

Friend: Wow. That's really concerning. It sounds like the Western coalition is in a really precarious position.

Me: Yeah, that's true. The article suggests that if the Western coalition falters, other countries may pursue more aggressive policies, such as developing nuclear weapons or expanding their zones of impunity. This could lead to increased geopolitical risk and instability. It also suggests that the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election will be critical in determining the direction of the world order.

Action items

Research the current geopolitical landscape and the implications of the 2020s for the post-1945 world order.
Educate yourself on the potential threats posed by the trio of trouble (China, Iran, and Russia) and the implications of their collaboration.
Stay informed on the upcoming US presidential election and the potential impact of the outcome on the global order.

Technical terms

Vicious Cycle: A repeating pattern of events that leads to a negative outcome.
Fragility: The state of being easily broken or damaged.
Unipolar Moment: A period of time in which one nation or power is dominant.
Isolationist: A policy of avoiding involvement in international political and economic relations.
Populism: A political approach that appeals to the interests and opinions of ordinary people.
Interventionist Economics: Government intervention in the economy to influence or control economic factors.
Transactional Globalization: A form of globalization that emphasizes the exchange of goods and services between countries.
Impunity: Exemption from punishment or freedom from the injurious consequences of an action.
Ethnic Cleansing: The systematic forced removal of ethnic or religious groups from a given territory.
Proxies: A person or thing that acts on behalf of another.
Double Standards: The application of different sets of principles for similar situations.
Stalemate: A situation in which neither side in a conflict or dispute can achieve victory.
Mutiny: A rebellion against authority, especially by sailors against their commanding officer.
Purges: The removal of people from a political or other organization on the grounds of disloyalty.